All posts by Saad Ahmed

Can Corporations Be Religious? Critical Review of Burwell vs Hobby Lobby et al; Part 2

Check out Part 1 to see where the concurring opinion’s views were left off

On the use of principles in making a judgement, legal positivism would hold that such a method is weak, as principles do not determine particular results and are indeterminate (Hart 127-28). As such, Hobby Lobby should be provided religious freedom on the bounds that the principles cited by the concurring opinion are intangible weights of evaluation, whereas only the rules governing those particular cases of precedence are relevant. Hence, the dissenting opinion cites the Dictionary Act definition of ‘person’ as one that includes only specific corporations such as nonprofit organizations and profiting individuals, to establish that a comprehensive interpretation of ‘person’ has already been taken into account as part of the rule (SCOTUS 73).

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Can Corporations Be Religious? A Critical Review of Burwell vs Hobby Lobby et al; Part 1

The Department of Health and Human Services (HHS) utilizes certain regulations of the Affordable Care Act of 2010 to determine insurance coverage for employees, whereby employers are required to provide “prevent care and screenings” to women, including contraceptives approved by the FDA, without cost-sharing (SCOTUS 1). The owners of three corporations, Hobby Lobby Stores, Mardel and Conestoga Wood Specialties, disagreed with providing such care, as four of the contraceptives approved by the DFA “prevent [an] already fertilized egg from developing further”, and such a method went against their religious beliefs (2).

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Record-Breaking IPO: Saudi Oil Giant Aramco Going Public

Since 1945, the world has seen an era of American leadership. Now, with the populist mindset swaying in favor of protectionist policies and the 2008 Financial Crisis still reverberating in the pockets of the public, a new stage has been set with the receding role of the US in international leadership. Reminiscent of, though not entirely resembling, the American isolationist period of the 1930s, this power vacuum will grow and peak in 2018, when the full impact of the Congressional budget comes into play. The fair question: which actors will fill this vacuum, and with what currency?

Percent change of budget, based on the Trump Administration’s preliminary 2018 proposal // The Washington Post [1]

Enter Saudi Aramco, a private oil company that currently supplies one out of every nine barrels of oil produced in the world [2]. Founded by the Standard Oil Company of California, now Chevron, in 1933, shares were completely bought out by the government of Saudi Arabia by 1980 [3]. Whilst contributing up to nine-tenths of Saudi revenues [4], the global perception of climate change and the subsequent push for renewable, non-oil, energy resources has prompted Saudi Arabia to propose a hard-turn diversification program – Vision2030 [2]. The plan begins with the Initial Public Offering (IPO) of up to 5% of Aramco stake by late 2018, with a predicted price at $100 billion [3], trumping Alibaba Group’s record-bearing offering of $25 billion in 2014 [5].

 

Comparison of Aramco’s potential offer to previous offerings // Bloomberg [5]

The Saudi Arabian government has stated that the valuation of the company will by $2 trillion on the public market [2], but other estimates, like that of Wood Mackenzie Ltd., come up with a valuation of $400 billion [5]. However, these lower bound estimates are based on the current financial structure of the company, and with JPMorgan working with the Saudi authorities on broad changes in regards to regulatory exposure, disclosure rules, dividend policy and exchange listing options, this valuation estimate is likely to be higher [2].

Further, the Saudi government’s financial restructuring and other initiatives in line with Vision2030 will be the greatest factors of success before this momentous listing. One such government scheme is the Citizen’s Account, which will dole out $6.7 billion worth of public disbursements in 2017, increasing to almost $20 billion by 2020, in order to limit the influence of energy price increase on citizens and subsequently soften the effect of austerity measures. Additionally, a new excise tax on ‘harmful products’, like tobacco and energy drinks, will begin, along with a 5% value-added tax in 2018 [6]. As well as that, there have been talks to review Aramco’s income tax rate from 85% to as low as 50% [7]. Further, the biannual reduction of fuel, water and electricity subsidies that started in 2015 will continue. Moreover, to counter the current slowdown, considering the 3.4% to 1.1% growth from 2015 to 2016 and an expectant growth of 0.9% in 2017, a stimulus package of almost $60 billion will be allotted until 2020 [6].

Along with the dynamic attitude of the Saudi government, Aramco’s own restructuring and diversification projects are underway. Advisors and company executives are discussing whether to make Aramco a ‘global industrial conglomerate’ or a ‘specialized international oil company’. Leaning towards the former, Saudi officials are considering the reformation into something reminiscent of a ‘Korean chaebol’, a reference to South Korean family-owned conglomerates, thus expanding the company’s role in petrochemicals and other sectors. As Aramco begins to diversify, with a $5 billion ship repair and construction complex on the East coast, $400 billion forging and casting projects with General Electric and plans to build solar and wind power facilities, the risks of investment become more diverse and the company gets harder to value [7]. However, the synchronization of company and government initiatives, as enabled by Deputy Crown Prince Mohammad bin Salman Al Saud, doubling as the owner of Aramco and chairman of the Council for Economic and Development Affairs, will result in the growth and valuation of the company at a much higher level than some anticipate.

Even when withholding the effects of diversification, Aramco is still expanding its natural gas production capacity, and wants to double it from 12 billion to 24 billion cubic feet per over the next 10 years [8]. And given that the oil market will continue to perform well, as it has done since the production cut in November 2016 when OPEC reached an output agreement [5], Aramco’s success in this sector seems inevitable.

OPEC Performance after the production cuts // Bloomberg [5]

With the ambitious objective to create a sovereign wealth fund that will anchor Saudi state revenue by 2030, there’s no doubt this IPO will have a monumental impact on the cash flows of the East. A survey conducted by investment bank EFG Hermes at an investment conference in Dubai, polling 510 international fund managers, shows that 63% predict Aramco’s market capitalization to be over $1 trillion, while 36% predict under $1 trillion [9]. Such a valuation falls in the middle, though leans upward, between Saudi Arabia’s prediction and Wood Mackenzie Ltd.’s harsher rough valuation of $400 billion. 

Comparison of the valuation of publicly traded companies, highlighting Aramco’s potential // Bloomberg [10]

If the valuation were to reach the upper bound, Aramco could swallow Apple twice and still have enough room for Google’s parent, Alphabet. On the lower bound, the company would still shake up and redistribute markets and begin its capitalist conquest through mergers, acquisitions, investments at an entrance point just above Facebook. With a 5% float of the company, the number of shares of Aramco available for trading, the company is estimated to account for 2.4% of the MSCI Emerging Markets Index’s gauge. This would thrust Aramco into the top five, alongside Samsung and Alibaba, and inflows to the Saudi Arabian foreign money market are expected to be at $6.6 billion from MSCI trackers and $2.5 billion from FTSE investors [5].
However, the Tawadul, Saudi Arabia’s Stock Exchange, has a market cap of only $440 billion, and so Aramco will seek out another Exchange, or multiple others, to list itself on. Preference is for a listing in the NYSE, despite a Congressional law being passed in 2016 that could allow American terror victims to sue Saudi Arabia. This, along with Trump’s islamophobic rhetoric, has potential to derail a NYSE listing [11], or elicit partial listings in multiple Exchanges, in which case the London, Toronto, Singapore and Hong Kong Exchanges are other stated options [5]. Regardless of the listing location, as trade barriers go up in Europe and the US enters an era of isolationism, Chinese and OPEC influence will rise and their bond will create the foundations of this global power shift.

 

References

[1] https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/politics/trump-presidential-budget-2018-proposal/?utm_term=.7483d7263da8
[2] https://www.ft.com/content/99353918-ed8c-11e6-930f-061b01e23655
[3] https://www.forbes.com/sites/ellenrwald/2017/02/25/the-worlds-biggest-ipo-is-coming-what-you-should-know-about-aramco/#29110053535f
[4] http://knowledge.wharton.upenn.edu/article/boutique-firm-landed-big-role-aramco-ipo/
[5] https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-02-26/this-is-all-the-ways-a-saudi-aramco-ipo-could-impact-markets
[6] https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-03-06/aramco-ipo-prep-on-powerful-saudi-prince-s-long-2017-to-do-list
[7] http://www.reuters.com/article/us-saudiaramco-ipo-restructuring-idUSKBN15W1ZB
[8] https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-10-06/saudi-aramco-ipo-will-offer-stake-in-all-of-company-s-operations
[9] http://uk.businessinsider.com/investors-expect-saudi-aramco-ipo-to-value-at-one-trillion-2017-3
[10] https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-02-23/saudi-arabia-2-trillion-aramco-vision-runs-into-market-reality
[11] http://www.marketwatch.com/story/saudi-arabia-favors-new-york-for-aramco-ipo-2017-02-21

Newsonomics: Trends in Competition and Bias in the News Industry

Allegedly the most empirical civilization of all time, our Information Age would no doubt serve its audience righteously in their attempts to obtain knowledge. But take a look at the N-gram, a Google search engine that charts the frequency of a word in printed sources over time, for the word epistemology:

Google N-gram Viewer of ‘epistemology’

As the study of ‘how we know’, epistemology distinguishes justified beliefs from opinion. Since the dawn of the Information Age in the 1990s and the advent of the Internet, the use of this word, and implicitly its application to our lives, has been in decline. But what does this trend mean for the news media industry in terms of how news firms compete?

Firstly, considering audience trends in the US, newspapers have decreased in circulation by 7%, while the average viewership for prime-time news has increased by 8% [1]. Competition in the Cable TV market has increased because of the reduction of regulatory controls during the 1980s, subsequently incentivizing news firms to enter this market [2]. This raised much appraise with academics and professionals in the field who hold that the ‘persuasion game’, between firms in the market who bout for news scoops and larger readerships, will always yield the truth. Given that at least one news source propagates the truth and consumers read all sources, the truth will be known by all readers as all firms eventually bend to the most empirical facts and information over time as presented in the truthful news source, since each firm’s reputation is on the line [3]. For example, a Democrat newspaper reveals a scandal concerning a Republican, and a Republican newspaper initially denies it. However, assuming the Democrat newspaper has the best facts, the Republican newspaper eventually concedes to some of the allegations because their reputation is at stake as their readership, who also reads the Democrat newspaper, begins to know of the truth.

Now, let’s complicate our ‘persuasion game’ by introducing a bias on the supply-side of the news market. Naturally, news firms are incentivized to be the first to find and publish ‘scoops’, news stories that are desirable to the public. However, a firm might be suppressed as a result of government intrusion. Consider the following variables: government bribe B, firm revenue for story circulation R, the number of firms N, and value to government of suppression V. The bribe must be B ≥ R. Further, B ≤ V/N, since the value of suppression will be distributed between the number of firms. Therefore, the suppression equilibrium is V/N ≥ R, which indicates that a greater number of firms, or increased competition, will decrease the likelihood that the story is suppressed. Additionally, as firms drop out and avoid a particular story, remaining firms have a growing incentive to publish as their potential audience grows. Human rights violations in Iraq’s Abu Ghraib prison and the leak of the ‘Pentagon Papers’ are examples of stories that were suppressed by government intrusion after their initial publication [3].

More often in our Information Age, a bias is introduced on the demand-side of the news market. Consumers have a preference for news sources that confirm their prior beliefs [4]. When the main source of news was newspapers, readers could pick up multiple papers with different biases to get an objective view of all sides of an issue, thus the success of the ‘persuasion game’ in yielding truth. However, with the rise of prime-TV news coverage, and readers turning to other sources on the Internet, like Facebook, it became simple and easy to appease your own bias. Given that consumers have a psychological urge to confirm and fall further in their beliefs [5] and that news quality is increasingly being associated with whether or not their belief is confirmed [3], it comes as no surprise that news firms cater to their audience by bias-targeting. Thus, considering the N-gram presented above, a decline in empiricism can be causally related to the advent of Internet news and the drinking of the Kool-Aid, en masse.

Bias-targeting is ever present in the strategy of prime-TV news firms who hope to satisfy their audience. With the Information Age, such a formula has unfurled itself farther as the news industry’s competition increases with evermore rapid forms of ingestion: Websites, mobile apps and social media posts. Just in case such conveniences weren’t courtly enough, Facebook’s news feed algorithm prioritizes what a user is likely to click on and browse through [6]. However, this may only reinforce false biases. Further, as a user’s online traffic becomes more prevalent, it paves the way for bias-targeting on a political level.

Cambridge Analytica is a Big Data company that worked for the ‘Brexit’ campaign in its primal stages and Trump’s Presidential campaign [7]. Their accurate modelling of people’s digital footprints gives particular persons an edge as they confirm those biases at that right place, at the right time, to the right people. And the irony that seeps through is that the populist movement, so unempirical and unscientific in their diatribes and nationalistic jargon, was thrust forth unto the steeple because of the modern work of statisticians and scientists of the day.

[1] http://www.journalism.org/2016/06/15/state-of-the-news-media-2016/
[2] Hamilton, James T. 2004. All the News that’s Fit to Sell. Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press.
[3] https://web.stanford.edu/~gentzkow/research/jepmedia.pdf
[4] https://web.stanford.edu/~gentzkow/research/BiasReputation.pdf
[5] Nisbett, Richard, and Lee Ross. 1980. Human Inference: Strategies and Shortcomings of Social Judgment. Englewood Cliffs, NJ: Prentice-Hall, Inc.
[6] https://www.bloomberg.com/view/articles/2017-02-17/mark-zuckerberg-s-manifesto-for-facebook-offers-a-social-dystopia
[7] https://motherboard.vice.com/en_us/article/how-our-likes-helped-trump-win

 

Trends in Corporate Lobbying: Its Incentives and Socio-Economic Effects

In sight of the White House, just across from Lafayette Square, lies the US Chamber of Commerce (AmCham) Foundation, which works to educate the public on the positive impacts of business. Such proximity signifies the intimacy of Congressional agenda-setting and its policy priorities with the lobbyists supporting unregulated, Big Business. Since the early 2000s, corporate lobbying has exceeded the Congressional budget, where $2.6 billion per year is spent in such a manner [1]. This increasing corporate influence in US politics culminates in the ‘Citizens United vs. Federal Election Commission’ Supreme Court Case, which determined that campaign spending by organization should remain without a ceiling [2].

This is in stark contrast to the 1960s, when public interest groups and labor unions were highly significant actors and corporate lobbies remained limited and inefficient. The government had gone on a ‘regulatory binge’, but growing compliance costs, rising wages and slowing economic growth spurred the formation of the Business Roundtable. This lobbying group was formed by the most senior executives of American Big Business, with objectives to decrease labor costs and union power and increase the ‘international competitiveness of American industry’. By the early 1980s, lobbyists triumph with successful labor reform, loss of regulation and lower taxes, as exemplified by the Labor Reform Law of 1977 and Economic Recovery Tax Act of 1981 [1].

Lobbyists assumed a ‘leave us alone’ relationship with the government in Washington. This attitude shifted to ‘let’s work together’ in the late 1980s with the advent of ‘advocacy advertising’. These programs are aimed to shape the political landscape by creating commercials and media to “[procure] a political climate conducive to business as a whole” [3]. And this chumminess between politics and business was not privy to the US alone.

The global influence of AmCham grew with the Europeanization of American business interests, as American firms adopted policies to hire specific European nationals to lead on specific business issues. However, the early 1990s saw the growing influence of the European Round Table of Industrialists, and so grows the divide between the influence of European and American lobbyists [4].

The informality and flexibility of the European Commission allows for its lobbyists to conduct long-run business-government relationships. The intimate relationship between administration bureaucracies and the business environment is exemplified by a common interventionist policy that a European government and business has with the EU, where such a relationship is symbiotic in the sense that both parties would prosper by stepping up their regulatory initiatives in the EU Single Market [4]. Conversely, the US Market is at odds with consistent quarrels between Big Business and the government over business-inhibiting regulations and transparency measures.

European and American differences aside, lobbying influence is a growing trend that is easily perceived when considering particular lobbying strategies of firms. Note that, naturally, some interest groups may have divergent interests. If the policy goals of different groups are not consistent, let’s say between a Business group and a Labor group, the amount of lobbying on the issue increases due to various viewpoints. More significant is the ‘free-riding problem’, which occurs when some firms benefit from the work of an interest group in their lobbying attempts without being part of the lobbying. A common solution is that the benefits from lobbying can be allocated solely to participants of the collective action, though consequently lobbying participation and amount of lobbying funding will increase [5].

As firms are incentivized to lobby, the socio-economic effects are consequently more prevalent. With solutions to the ‘free-riding’ and divergent interest problems being provided by the theory of collective action, the result is rising aggregate profits. This corresponds to a decreasing wage share and stagnant wages for lower-income workers, compared to higher-income ones in the same corporation, resulting in greater wage inequality [7].

Top Graph: Employee Compensation and Corporate Profits // Bottom Graph: Wages to Profit Ratio [6]

This rise in profits could be a result of a decline in competition, especially with sustained long-term aggregate profits, and firms are able to increase their prices and lobby for favorable regulations rather than using the wholesome tool of innovation to compete with other firms [7].

The social critique aside, with the increasingly present politic-skewing effects of lobbying, Western leaders like Trudeau and Trump have taken steps to ostensibly consolidate their power. Canada’s Trudeau legislates a ban to cash-for-access lobbying [8], requiring transparent lobbying being the only means to do so, and America’s Trump ordering a Five-Year Ban on lobbying and a permanent ban to foreign lobbying [9]. This allows these leaders to keep the Parliamentary and Congressional agendas their own and undermine efforts of political opponents, but can also lead to trends back to more moderate political-business relationships that were witnessed in the 1970s.

With a highly centralized government comes the reliance of cities on international lending and corporate borrowing with tight regulation, and a susceptibility to a long-term market slowdown, as seen during the 1960s in the US. A highly decentralized government results in deregulation and increased reliance of cities on corporate borrowing, with the effects of lobbying becoming more discernible. Both these national strategies seem to ‘give the man fish, without teaching him how to fish’. The prioritization of business entrepreneurship as the primary growth strategy has resulted in declining industrial productivity, as exemplified by the US Rustbelt states, especially with government opposition to the strategy. Today, it seems as though governance would rather be ‘the hand that feeds us’ rather than ‘teaching us how to fish’.

And so a tenacious tone rings through and is epitomized by the words of Napoleon Bonaparte at the dawn of the industrial revolution, when he says, “When a government is dependent upon bankers for money, they and not the leaders of the government control the situation, since the hand that gives is above the hand that takes” [10].


Sources:

[1]http://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2015/04/how-corporate-lobbyists-conquered-american-democracy/390822/
[2] https://www.law.cornell.edu/supct/html/08-205.ZS.html
[3]http://publishing.cdlib.org/ucpressebooks/view?docId=ft5h4nb372&chunk.id=d0e2339&toc.depth=100&toc.id=d0e2246&brand=ucpress
[4] https://www.hks.harvard.edu/m-rcbg/Events/Papers/RPP_3-10-05_Coen.pdf
[5] http://www.nber.org/papers/w7726.pdf
[6]http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-12-04/wages-relative-profits-drop-all-time-low
[7] https://hbr.org/2016/05/lobbyists-are-behind-the-rise-in-corporate-profits
[8]http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/politics/trudeau-cash-for-access-fundraisers-changes/article33788333/
[9] http://time.com/4652703/president-trump-lobbying-ban/
[10] http://www.globalresearch.ca/the-fourteen-year-recession/5375191