Introduction

Throughout history, various groups – tribes, kingdoms, or countries – have gained wealth and power either by building it themselves, taking it from others, or discovering resources. When one group accumulated more wealth and power than any other group, it became the world’s leading power, capable of determining the world order. In this paper, “empire” refers to this leading power that holds significant influence over global affairs through military, economic, and cultural dominance. Even before the concept of modern nation-states existed, empires like the Roman Empire thrived and dominated large regions. However, when empires lose this wealth and power, which they all inevitably did, the world order changes significantly.

A considerable amount of research, including studies by macro-investor Ray Dalio and British diplomat and scholar John Glubb, has analyzed thousands of years of data on the historical rise and fall of empires. There is consensus on two key points: first, no single factor causes the rise, peak, and decline of empires; instead, these changes are driven by a multitude of mutually reinforcing factors that work together. Second, empires do not rise and fall overnight; rather, their rise and decline are gradual, much like aging – you can’t pinpoint the exact day your strengths begin to wane, but over time, these signs become increasingly apparent.

When examining the big picture of historical empires, a fascinating trend emerges in the data (See Figure 1). All great empires, regardless of the time periods that separate them, follow a cycle of rise, peak, and decline. This cycle typically spans around 250 years, with 10- to 20-year transition periods, marked by significant conflict, as one empire declines and another rises (9). Dalio and Glubb’s work highlights the extraordinary precision with which empires throughout history have exhibited this cycle. The consistent recurrence of this pattern is nothing short of astonishing.

Through historical analysis, researchers have identified common patterns that emerge during each stage of an empire’s lifecycle. Just as wrinkles and gray hair signify aging, several economic, military, political, and social trends indicate whether an empire is rising, peaking, or declining. Understanding these indicators allows us to determine an empire’s position in the cycle, providing valuable insights into its trajectory. This paper will delve into the indicators of the rise, peak, and decline, provide historical examples, and analyze whether the current state of the US mirrors the decline patterns observed in historical empires.

 

The Rise

The rise of an empire is marked by a period of dynamic growth and fearless initiative, wherein a relatively insignificant nation rises to prominence through relentless ambition and strategic innovation, driven by a strong desire for wealth (16). Strong leadership and a vision for expansion are typical of this period, with leaders establishing systems to increase the country’s wealth and power by fostering strong education systems that lead to increased innovation and technological advancement. This boosts productivity, increasing the country’s competitiveness in global markets and its share of world trade (9). To protect its growing interests, the nation invests in its military, which leads to what Glubb defines as the ‘Age of Conquests’, marked by military and territorial expansion. These ‘conquests’ stimulate commercial prosperity by facilitating extensive trade, bringing about the ‘Age of Commerce’, which is characterized by immense wealth accumulation driven by public ambition and investments in infrastructure, education, and R&D. Daring initiatives drive the exploration of new forms of wealth, often resulting in the development of leading financial centers that attract and distribute the capital of their times. Amsterdam was the world’s financial center during the Dutch Golden Age, London during the rise of the British Empire, and today New York holds this position (16).

With a large share of global trade and a leading financial center, confidence in the nation’s currency grows. As rising empires approach their peak, they often establish a leading reserve currency through economic dominance, strategic international agreements, geopolitical influence, and the ability to provide liquidity and maintain confidence in their currency (9). Historically, leading reserve currencies have included Spain (1530-1640), the Netherlands (1640-1720), France (1720-1815), and Great Britain (1815-1920), all of which were once great empires. Since 1921, the US dollar has held this position (9).

The British Empire’s Rise: The British Empire’s rise showcases these patterns clearly, illustrating characteristics similar to those observed in the rise of past empires. In the 17th century, the English Civil War and the Glorious Revolution weakened the monarchy and strengthened Parliament, allowing for meritocratic leadership. This paved the way for influential statesmen like William Pitt the Elder, Will Pitt the Younger, and Robert Peel to play strong roles in shaping Britain’s policies and global strategy during its rise (9). The Enlightenment markedly influenced Britain with its emphasis on reason and science, improving basic education, and spreading ideas through printed materials, including the first mass-produced encyclopedias. Literacy rates rose 30% between 1650 to 1754 for men, and 15% between 1714 to 1754 for women (3). The First Industrial Revolution in the 18th century marked a turning point, with advancements in manufacturing, transportation, and communication boosting Britain’s productivity and economic output (9). Britain’s competitiveness in commerce and innovation rose significantly, resulting in a growing share of world trade and increased global influence. Their strategic focus on naval power and exploration led to the establishment of a vast colonial network, facilitating access to resources, markets, and trade routes. Britain secured its dominance after defeating Napoleonic France in the early 1800s, leading to a new world order. By the mid-19th century, British trade with its colonies was valued at £200 million, up from £12 million in the 18th century (12). British culture, language, and institutions spread worldwide, influencing legal systems, education, and governance in many regions. The development of financial markets and London as a financial center eventually caused the British pound to overtake the Dutch guilder as the global reserve currency. By the mid-19th and early 20th centuries, the British Empire became the largest in history, producing over 20% of the world’s income, controlling over 20% of the world’s landmass, and governing over 25% of the global population at its peak (9,12).

Through Britain’s rise, we see all the common characteristics observed in the rise of past empires, including: 1) strong leadership, 2) inventiveness, 3) education, 4) strong culture, 5) good resource allocation, 6) good competitiveness, 7) strong income growth, and 8) strong markets and financial centers. These traits were also evident during the rise of the Dutch, Ottoman, Roman, and Persian Empires, among others. Such indicators of an emerging power’s rise signify a fundamentally strong country with rising incomes, low levels of indebtedness, and relatively small wealth and political gaps, where workers, government, and the military collaborate to produce prosperity (9).

 

The Top 

Eventually, the rising empire reaches its peak, attaining its highest levels of wealth and power. This is also when the seeds of decline are sown. During this stage, empires become less productive, overextended, lose competitiveness, and experience rising wealth gaps (9).

Once empires reach their peak, a series of mutually reinforcing changes begin to unfold. As people grow richer and reap the rewards of their success, they tend to work less, prioritizing luxury and leisure over productivity. The relentless initiative and drive for communal prosperity that initially fueled an empire’s rise become overshadowed by the pursuit of personal gain and comfort; values of courage, enterprise, and duty are replaced by complacency and self-interest. Education shifts from fostering patriotism and civic responsibility to producing individuals seeking high salaries and personal success (16). As a result, productivity decreases, empires lose their competitiveness, wealth gaps widen amid a shrinking economic pie, and political gaps grow as the wealthy influence political systems to their advantage, generating resentment among the broader population (9). Historical periods like the eras of Augustus in Rome illustrate how wealth and luxury replace honour and adventure as the main motivator, causing a decline in military effectiveness and civic duty (15).

As values shift and competitiveness weakens, empires become overextended. Maintaining and defending vast territories becomes more costly than profitable. The conquests cease and empires adopt a more defensive strategy, shifting from expansion to preservation. This phase sees the construction of defensive structures like the Great Wall of China and Hadrian’s Wall, as well as a reliance on diplomacy and subsidies to avoid conflict (16). To maintain high living standards amid weakened productivity, borrowing increases as both individuals and governments take on more debt. This period sees financial bubbles and starts to accumulate unsustainable levels of debt (9).

The British Empire’s Peak: At its peak around 1850, the British Empire was the world’s dominant superpower, accounting for about 40% of global exports (9). This era, known as the Pax Britannica, saw technological advancements, vast territorial/colonial control, and the spread of British culture, language, and institutions worldwide. However, the seeds of Britain’s decline were sown as wealth increased and the Victorian ethos of duty and service shifted towards individualism and materialism (14). During the Second Industrial Revolution, while the US and Germany boosted productivity with new energy sources and innovations, the UK failed to adapt, leading to decreased productivity and competitiveness, and thus a shrinking economic pie. Wealth gaps widened, and by the late 19th century, the top 1% owned over 70% of all wealth in the UK (9). Military overextension and the shift from expansion to preservation are evident through Britain’s construction of defensive structures such as Palmerston’s Follies (13). Financial overreach is evident through the significant debt incurred during the Crimean War (1853-1856), the Indian Rebellion (1857-1858), and the Boer War (1899-1902), heavy investments in colonial infrastructure, and a widening trade deficit by 1911. In Britain’s peak, we see the seeds of its decline emerge through weakened productivity, military and financial overextension, declining competitiveness, rising inequality, and the emergence of new rivals, Germany and the US.

 

The Decline

The decline of an empire is marked by high levels of debt, the printing of money, internal and external conflict, loss of reserve currency status, and weak leadership – which all typically lead to some form of revolution or civil war (9). During this stage, a series of minor failures that go unaddressed, and the rise of emerging rivals, add up to challenge the foundation of the empire.

Internally, the empire accumulates substantial debt as borrowing increases to maintain high living standards amid weakened competitiveness, productivity, and economic output. These economic weaknesses worsen during downturns, making it difficult to borrow the necessary funds to repay debts (9). To avoid defaulting, governments often resort to printing more money, which devalues the currency and raises inflation. This exacerbates internal conflict as wealth disparities between the rich and poor grow. The wealthy, often wielding significant political influence, become targets of populist movements that blame them for the country’s problems. In response to public discontent, governments often impose higher taxes on the wealthy, causing them to leave the country, and in turn, further reducing tax revenue and productivity. These factors intensify resource conflicts and deepen societal divisions. Political extremism rises as various groups, feeling marginalized and disenfranchised, turn to radical solutions. As internal conflicts escalate, they often result in revolutions or civil wars aimed at redistributing wealth. While some reforms, like Roosevelt’s New Deal, were peaceful, others, such as those in Germany, Japan, Spain, Russia, and China in the 1940s, were violent and transformative (9).

Externally, rising powers challenge the dominant empire, increasing the risk of international conflict. These rivals exploit domestic weaknesses, especially if they have comparable military strength. Defending against them requires heavy military spending, further straining domestic conditions. Ultimately, poor economic conditions and internal strife lead to costly wars that deplete resources. When investors lose faith in the empire’s currency and debt, they sell them off, signalling the end of the empire’s dominance. Here, the empire typically loses its reserve currency status. This combination of indebtedness, civil unrest, revolution, international conflict, and loss of faith in currency typically marks the end of the empire’s cycle and the beginning of a new one (9).

The British Empire’s Decline: The decline of the British Empire exemplifies these patterns distinctly. Rising inequality fueled internal conflict and social unrest during a period known as the Great Unrest (1910-1914). This era saw a surge in labor strikes such as the national coal strike of 1912 and the Dublin Lockout of 1913, as well as demands for greater political representation from disenfranchised groups (30). Simultaneously, rising powers like the US and Germany began to surpass Britain in industrial and economic power, eroding its competitive edge (14). The financial strain of World War I significantly increased Britain’s national debt, while World War II devastated Britain’s economy and accelerated the process of decolonization, thereby diminishing its global influence. The unsustainable costs of maintaining and defending its vast territories, combined with growing unrest and rising nationalist movements in various colonies, led to the rapid loss of key assets (13). India’s independence in 1947 triggered a domino effect, with numerous colonies gaining independence shortly thereafter (30). Concurrently, the Allied victory of WWII caused a major shift in global wealth and power, substantially increasing the United States’ relative wealth and positioning it as the world’s leading empire, similar to Britain’s rise post-Napoleonic Wars.

By the end of WWII, investors began shifting their investments from the UK to the US (9). Although it took another 20 years for the British pound to fully lose its status as the international reserve currency, a significant turning point occurred when the pound’s convertibility was suspended in August 1947. This period marked the end of British financial dominance, with New York emerging as the new global financial center and the US assuming the role of global police force through institutions like the United Nations (9).

 

The Life Cycle of an Empire

Figure 2 illustrates the archetypical life cycle of an empire, highlighting the key indicators of each stage. To summarize, the archetypical life cycle of an empire involves a rise marked by strong leadership, innovation, education, culture, resource allocation, competitiveness, income growth, and thriving markets; a peak where wealth and power are maximized but productivity declines and wealth gaps widen; and a decline characterized by large debts, money printing, conflicts, loss of reserve currency status, weak leadership, and eventual revolution/war. This cyclical pattern can be observed in the histories of the Roman, Ottoman, and British empires, among others.

 

The US Empire – Are we Witnessing its Decline?

Having established the general patterns and indicators of the rise and fall of historical empires, we can now apply these insights to the American context. As the United States approaches its 250th anniversary in 2026, it is worth noting that no one alive today has experienced a world without American global dominance.

 

The Rise of the US Empire

The rise of the US started with fearless initiative and a spirit of innovation and courage that led to its independence from Britain in 1776. Key educational institutions such as Harvard, Yale, and Princeton were established in the late 17th and 18th centuries, signifying a focus on fostering strong education. The subsequent rise in education levels led to increases in productivity, innovation, technology, and competitiveness from the 18th to mid-19th century, with a temporary disruption during the US Civil War (9). The Second Industrial Revolution further boosted productivity, creating larger gains in income and innovation. These growing strengths were reflected in the US’s rising share of global economic output and world trade, as well as its growing financial strength, exemplified by New York’s emergence as a leading financial center. The ‘Age of Conquests’, spanning the 19th century through the mid-20th century, was characterized by extensive territorial expansion through Manifest Destiny, wars, and annexations. The US continued to grow through both World Wars, particularly thriving after World War 2, which is also when it established military bases worldwide (9).

Following World War II, the US became a global superpower with significant economic and military influence, established the US dollar as the world’s reserve currency and spearheaded the creation of international institutions like NATO. During the ‘Age of Commerce’ or postwar boom, the US enjoyed a period of unprecedented economic growth. Between 1945 and 1975, the US GDP surged from $228 billion to just under $1.7 trillion (21).

US workers saw real incomes grow at 3% annually, while productivity growth averaged 2.8% from 1948 to 1970 (2). By 1975, the US economy accounted for 35% of total global industrial output and was 3 times as large as that of Japan, the second-largest economy at the time (21). After a century of rise, signs began to show that the country had reached its peak.

 

US Empire Reaches Its Peak 

While the United States experienced its highest levels of wealth and power in the late 20th and early 21st centuries, this era also sowed the seeds of its potential decline, exhibiting decreased productivity and competitiveness, overextension, and rising wealth gaps.

Decreased Productivity: The US experienced a notable slowdown in productivity starting in the mid-21st century. Since 2005, US labour productivity has grown at an average annual rate

of just 1.4%, down from 2.8% during the postwar boom, and below the long-term average of 2.1% from 1947-2018 (2, 25). Real wages have also stagnated, dropping from 3% annual growth during the postwar period to 0.7% annually (2). Despite fluctuations, real wages today have not risen since 1970 (see Figure 3), with the average American worker’s purchasing power in 2018 being nearly identical to that in 1978 (11). Furthermore, not everyone has shared equally in the relatively low gains in income, and as a result, workforce participation has fallen from 67% in the 1990s to 63% in 2019, as many have become discouraged about work (2). This slowdown has put downward pressure on economic growth, worker compensation, and overall living standards, signalling a departure from the high productivity that characterized earlier decades.

Military Overextension: The United States is increasingly overextended due to simultaneous conflicts in the Middle East, and Ukraine, and tensions with China. Biden’s administration faces significant strain on the defence industry, struggling to supply sufficient weapons and resources to multiple fronts (33). Allies fear they might be shortchanged as the US juggles these commitments, and the fragility of the defence supply chain has been exposed, particularly with depleted artillery stocks and production setbacks (33). The convergence of these conflicts highlights the risks of overreaching, raising concerns about the US’s capacity to maintain its global military commitments. Former Secretary of Defense Chuck Hagel summed it up by stating, “The US risks overreaching at a dangerously complicated and uncertain time in the world during a time when we see historic American dysfunction, incompetence, and division in our ability to govern” (33). The US’s steadfast support for Israel has cost it a whopping $12.5 billion in military aid since October 7th, despite International Court of Justice (ICJ) rulings condemning Israeli policies and numerous international human rights organizations, like UN special rapporteurs and Human Rights Watch, reporting on Israel’s human rights violations against Palestinians (7, 29).

Decreased competitiveness: Over the past few decades, the United States has experienced a decline in global competitiveness. Educational reforms post-WWII initially emphasized liberal arts and civic education, but later shifted towards more career-oriented and high-income professions, reflecting the typical shift in societal values (20). Undergraduate enrollment dropped from approximately 18.1 million students in 2010 to 15.4 million in 2021, while recent National Assessment of Educational Progress (NAEP) results reveal declines in American students’ knowledge and skills (22, 19). On the innovation and technology front, the US continues to excel in artificial intelligence, biotechnology, and quantum computing. However, China has made remarkable progress in catching up and currently surpasses the US in several technologies including 5G infrastructure and electric vehicles (5). To put China’s rapid growth in innovation and technology into perspective, in 2010, China’s innovation and advanced industry capabilities were 58% of US capabilities and 78% of US output. By 2020, these capabilities reached 75% of US capabilities and 139% of US output (5). Given that strong education, innovation, and technology are critical for maintaining a nation’s competitive edge, it is not surprising that the US is losing ground. The IMD World Competitiveness Center ranked the US 12th in 2024, the lowest it has ever been, continuing a downward trend from 3rd in 2019 and 1st in 2018 (32).

Rising Wealth Gaps: While the post-World War II economic boom led to a significant increase in overall wealth, the distribution of this wealth has become increasingly uneven.

Since the 1980s, income and wealth inequality in the United States have increased, creating wider disparities between the rich and poor than in any other major developed nation (28, 17). The wealth gap between the richest and poorest families more than doubled from 1989 to 2016 (17). By 2016, upper-income families held 7.4 times as much wealth as middle-income families and 75 times as much as lower-income families, up from the respective values of 3.4% and 28 in 1983 (17). This growing disparity exacerbates social tensions and undermines economic mobility, as the concentration of wealth at the top leaves lower and middle-income families with fewer resources.

All the indicators that an empire has reached its peak are evident; decreased productivity, military overextension, decreased competitiveness, and rising wealth gaps, all posing challenges to the US’ future stability and prosperity. This prompts the critical question: Are we witnessing the signs of decline?

 

Are We Witnessing the Signs of the US Empire’s Decline?

Is the US exhibiting any of the indicators of decline – excessive debt, money printing, internal and external conflict, weak leadership, loss of reserve currency status, and civil war or revolution? Let us explore these indicators in detail.

Large Levels of Debt: The US has historically borrowed money to fund its growth, but the situation has now reached unprecedented levels. As of March 2024, US government debt accounted for 124.7% of its nominal GDP (27). This means that the government’s total debt is 1.247 times larger than the economic output it produces in a single year. Moreover, the government’s debt has consistently exceeded the total economic output since 2016. This high level of debt is primarily driven by continuous borrowing to finance military engagements, social programs, and economic stimuli. Today, the national debt stands at approximately $34.9 trillion (26).

Printing of Money and Inflation: In response to economic crises, the US has often resorted to printing money, leading to inflation. This was evident during the 2008 financial crisis and the recent economic fallout from COVID-19, where large-scale stimulus packages contributed to rising inflation rates. Inflation peaked at 6.4% in early 2023 before moderating to around 3% by mid-2024 (8). Rising inflation, combined with increasing interest rates, has strained household budgets and reduced consumer confidence, further stressing the economy.

Internal and External Conflict: Internally, the US faces striking political polarization and social conflict. According to a Pew Research Center report, the United States stands out among 17 advanced economies as one of the most conflicted in terms of social unity (6). A large majority of Americans perceive strong political and racial/ethnic conflicts, with 9 in 10 American adults acknowledging conflicts between supporters of different political parties, and 7 in 10 recognizing conflicts between people of different ethnic or racial backgrounds (6). The growing concentration of wealth among the top percentiles, and the disproportionate effects of the COVID-19 economic blows on the middle and lower classes, have led to social unrest and increased resentment towards corporations and the elite (34). Political divisions have deepened, with events like the January 6th insurrection illustrating the intense partisan conflict. The recent assassination attempt on Donald Trump highlights escalating political violence and instability.

Externally, the US, in recent years, has involved itself in several conflicts that strain its resources, global standing, and diplomatic relationships. The US-China trade war, initiated by the Trump administration, led to higher prices and job losses that hurt American consumers and businesses without achieving the desired outcomes of reducing the trade deficit and changing Chinese economic policies (10). Moreover, the US has strained relations with several countries and fueled anti-American sentiment due to its unwavering support for Israel in its war on Palestine, despite recent ICJ findings that Israel is committing apartheid, violating multiple international laws, and recent calls for an end to Israel’s 57-year illegal occupation of Palestinian territories (4, 29).

Weak Leadership: Currently, the US faces concerns regarding its leadership, reflected in deep political polarization, governance challenges, and a lack of new leadership options. The 2020 and 2024 elections underscored these divisions, with primary candidates Joe Biden and Donald Trump representing polarized visions. Biden, despite his experience, faces criticism for his handling of the economy, immigration, international relations, and his age. Public confidence in Biden’s handling of key issues has significantly declined, with fewer than half of Americans expressing confidence in his economic and immigration policies (18). Political gridlock stalls key legislative initiatives, undermining public trust and international perception. These leadership challenges highlight systemic issues in governance.

China – an Emerging Rival Power: China’s rapid economic growth and strategic long-term planning have positioned it as a formidable competitor to the US. From 2000 to 2021, China’s economy grew from $1.2 trillion to $17.7 trillion, achieving an average real growth rate of 8.7% per year (1). In comparison, over the same period, the US experienced an average annual real GDP growth rate of 2%, with its economy growing from $10.3 trillion in 2000 to $24 trillion in 2021 (1). China’s rapid growth, driven by substantial investments in infrastructure, innovation, and a robust manufacturing sector, signifies its rising economic influence and challenges the US’s long-standing economic dominance. Furthermore, China has overtaken the US to become the number one trading partner of most nations in the world (1). These strategic investments and strengthened trade relationships with countries traditionally allied with the US (such as the Philippines, Pakistan, and various African nations) are reshaping global economic dynamics, reflecting China’s growing role in global trade. It’s evident that the US is losing ground, economically and geopolitically, to China.

Reserve Currency Status: The US dollar remains the world’s leading reserve currency. However, the rise of China and the growing interest in alternative currencies pose a potential threat to the dollar’s dominance. The BRICS nations (Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa) have expressed interest in creating a new currency to compete with the US dollar and recently announced plans for a blockchain-based payment system (23). Despite these potential threats, the US continues to play a significant role on the global stage. In 2023, the per capita GDP of the US reached over $80,000, reflecting the resilience and relatively high living standards compared to the rest of the world (24). It is important to note that historically, there tended to be a lag in the loss of reserve currency status by declining empires.

Civil War/Revolution: The United States has not reached this phase in the cycle. Historically, civil wars and revolutions are often precipitated by severe economic disparities, deep political polarization, social injustices, and weak governance – factors that are increasingly evident in the United States today (9). Economic inequality has widened, and political polarization is at an all-time high. Discussions about a potential civil war in the US have gained traction in public discourse, with some historians and political analysts raising alarms about the growing political divides and the increasing willingness of individuals to engage in political violence. If these trends continue unchecked, the risk of significant internal disruptions could become more pronounced. These issues need to be addressed in order to prevent further escalation and ensure the stability of the nation.

 

Conclusion

In conclusion, the United States exhibits many of the indicators that historically signified the decline of great empires. Patterns observed in the decline of past empires, such as large levels of debt, money printing, internal and external conflict, and weak leadership, are evident in the current American context. At the same time, China demonstrates indicators of a rising power. The US appears to be following a similar trajectory to that of the Roman, British, and Dutch empires, among others. Ray Dalio’s statistical model places the US at roughly 70% through its Big Cycle, not yet having reached the civil war/revolution phase where active fighting begins but experiencing high and rising internal conflict (9).

It is crucial to recognize that while these patterns suggest a potential decline, the outcome is not predetermined. The US still holds significant global influence, economic power, and military strength. The resilience of its institutions, the potential for innovation, and the capacity for policy reform can alter the course of its trajectory. Addressing the underlying issues, such as income inequality, political polarization, and excessive debt, while fostering strong leadership and strategic international relations, can mitigate the risks and prolong the nation’s period of influence.

Ultimately, whether we are witnessing the decline of the American empire will depend on the country’s ability to confront and address the challenges it faces. Historical precedent offers valuable lessons, but it also highlights the importance of proactive and innovative responses to emerging issues. The future of the United States hinges on its ability to navigate these complexities and redefine its role in a rapidly evolving global landscape.

 

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